The economic cycle has been turned upside down. Depending where you look, there is strong evidence that the U.S. is in the first stage of recovery, in a long mid-cycle, or even approaching the final stages before rolling over. No wonder investors are confused. Deciding where the country stands in the cycle is a vital part of putting money to work, determining whether it is best to be in bonds, equities or commodities, and which sectors of the stock market are likely to perform best.